Here’s an analogy from the world of sports for the current “debate” on Work From Home (WFH) versus “Return to Office” (RTO).
The NBA first adopted the three-point line in 1979.
It was initially considered something of a gimmick.
Over the next couple of decades, there came to be three-point “specialists” (think Dale Ellis, for example) as well as a handful of individuals who incorporated the three-point shot into their repertoire as part of a well-rounded offensive game (think Larry Bird, for example).
But well into the 21st century, the three-point shot was still viewed as a somewhat marginal component in the game.
There were, however, a couple of “early adopter” teams that went in on the three-point shot as a central part of their offense. Examples include the Golden State Warriors of the late 80s / early 90s (the “run TMC” era), as well as the Phoenix Suns of the Mike D’Antoni / Steve Nash era (roughly, the second half of the aughts; a.k.a. the “7 seconds or less” offense). These teams demonstrated that an offense heavy on three-point attempts could be quite successful, and - arguably - maximize the return on investment, at least given a certain kind of roster construction.
In the grand scheme of things, though, this was a message the league as a whole was not ready to hear. There was, at least in some circles, a retrenchment towards the midrange and post-up game.
But cracks were appearing in the facade. In Dallas, Dirk Nowitzki in particular was pioneering the role of the 7-footer with a sweet touch from deep (a role that is now found on at least half the teams in the league, including such top-shelf stars as Kevin Durant and Nicola Jokic).
Fast forward 10 years or so, and the Golden State Warriors of the Steph Curry era blew the doors off this entire “debate”. Teams have largely abandoned the midrange 2-point jumpshot, except in cases where the defense radically undercommits to guarding against it. From an average of 15.3 three-point attempt per game in the ‘94-‘95 season, the average for the current NBA season sits at 37.6 attempts per game, for an approx. 2.5x increase.
One of the interesting things about this development is HOW BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS IT LOOKS IN HINDSIGHT. Basketball analysts are now fond of saying things like: “3 is more than 2, duh.” Or, less glibly: “A 40% shooting percentage from three-point range is as good as a 60% shooting percentage from two-point range.”
Now let’s talk about Work From Home. Fully-remote companies have existed for years - long before the COVID19 pandemic - but were viewed as something of a gimmick or an anomaly. (Think: Dale Ellis.)
Then along came COVID19 and proved that most white-collar jobs could be done perfectly well remotely, to great effect. (Think: the “run TMC” Warriors or the “7 seconds or less” Suns.)
This, however, was a message that administrators and C-suites throughout America & the rest of the world were not yet ready to hear. Predictably, there came the retrenchment: “Return To Office”.
But cracks are appearing in the facade. Companies mandating RTO are hemorrhaging top-level talent, while Work-From-Home companies are able to recruit the very best talent, since engineers who have options will pretty reliably choose WFH when it’s available to them.
My prediction, as you can probably gather if you’ve come this far, is that there will come a time - and not too far in the future, I’d reckon - where the inanity of RTO compared to WFH will be treated as SO BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS. Like: “3 is more than 2, duh.”
If you are reading this & you are in a decision-making position: you have a chance to be the Steph Curry era Golden State Warriors.
Or, I suppose, you could draft Greg Oden over Kevin Durant.
Choose wisely, senpai.